Tuesday, April 7, 2009

No surprises from G20 meeting

The good news from the G-20 summit meeting is that while some 90 people were arrested, only one person was killed, and even that might not be directly related to the protests. Other than some windows being broken at the Royal Bank of Scotland, the affair was about as peaceful as one could have hoped. French President Sarkozy didn't walk out, and for the first time in a long time, the US had a president with the gravitas to be there, and didn't try to look into anyone's soul. But for all the praise President Obama received, he didn't have a very strong hand to play.

Both China and Russia are trying to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, either with a gold-backed currency, or with Special Drawing Rights from the IMF. If the IMF was serious about this, they wouldn't be selling 403 tons of gold, ostensibly to pay some bills or raise funds to help impoverished countries in Africa, or some other such nonsense. I think it is a payoff for holders of T-Bonds who are fed up with our money printing. In other worlds, most of the IMF gold will end up in a Chinese bank vault, and none of it will ever be sold on the open market. It will be a bank-to-bank transaction, with no effect on the gold market.

All I can gather about the G20 meeting is that our world leaders finally figured out that the economic crisis is for real, and it is global, so they all have to learn to play nice with each other or the whole thing collapses. So we will see more and larger stimulus packages to come. They formally announced that the world will collectively spend another $5 trillion by the end of next year, and if things still don't look good, you can bet there's more where that came from. So there will be a global economic rally of sorts, but we won't see much of it here in the US. It will be led by the emerging markets, notably China, India and Brazil, and that will strengthen commodity prices further as those countries industrialize. Ever since I was in college, the old joke about Brazil was that it was the country of the future, and always would be. It appears now the joke is on us. Brazil is energy self-sufficient, it has an enormously popular president, and the country may actually start to live up to its potential.

And now a word about Plax. Some time ago (right after the idiot shot himself) I opined that Paxico Burress would play football again, but not for the New York Giants. At last the Giants have given up hope, and released him. Last year the Giants withheld his $1 million bonus because when they re-did his contract last year they inserted a clause that said Burress would forfeit his signing bonus if he was subject to “incarceration or detention by any law enforcement personnel” or if he was suspended by the NFL or the Giants for “conduct detrimental” to the team.

It sounds like the Giants knew who they were dealing with, doesn't it? That in itself is a sign of the times when you suspect your multi-millionaire employees might get themselves thrown in prison. But now an arbitrator ruled that the Giants have to pay Burress the $1 million because the Collective Bargaining Agreement overrules individual contracts, and the CBA states that a player can only forfeit his signing bonus if he “willfully takes action that has the effect of substantially undermining his ability to fully participate in either preseason training camp or the regular season.” The arbitrator ruled that Burress’ actions were not “willful.” So I guess if Burress had shot himself on purpose, the Giants would have had a better case.

That's one of the things I've always hated about unions. They protect bad people who deserve to be punished. I wish Plax well in his future endeavors, and I certainly hope he stays out of prison because he doesn't belong there. But as if he didn't hurt the Giants enough by wrecking their 2008 season, now he has cost the team another $1 million in the bargain. End of rant.

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