And now for something completely different

It is now only ten days to Super Sunday, as in Super Bowl 42.  Not XLII, as the NFL calls it.  I had to take three years of Latin in high school, and I have had my fill of Roman numerals.

The New England Patriots are a 13-point favorite, as they are still undefeated.  It is hard to argue with 18-0, especially when the New York Giants are one of those 18.  On paper, it looks like a mismatch.  But then I didn't think the Giants could beat the Cowboys, either.  And I was sure they couldn't beat the Packers in Green Bay, a game played in weather so cold that I wouldn't go outside for three seconds, let alone three hours.

But here they are.  And the more I think about it, the Patriots aren't the same team that ran up the score on opponents early in the year.  They have some age on defense, and lately they have had to outscore their opponents.  I think they are vulnerable to both the pass and the run.  The Giants can run effectively with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and their receivers made a couple of Pro Bowl defensive backs look silly in the NFC title game.  The real problem is stopping the Patriots, who rang up 38 on the Giants in December.  No one's been able to do that all year, and I don't think the Giants can do it.

The Patriots have so many weapons (Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Maroney, Faulk) that all you can do is try to slow them down.  In addition, the Giants defensive backs are hurting, and they aren't very good even when they're healthy.  But Randy Moss hasn't played well the past two weeks, and Brady threw three interceptions in the AFC title game.

If they played this game ten times, I think the Patriots would win nine of them.  Logically, the Giants will stay with them for two or three quarters, and then Eli Manning will make the big turnover that he's overdue for, and the Patriots will pull away.

But since I've been wrong about the Giants so many times already, my prediction is the Giants pass rush will disrupt Brady's offense just enough in a high-scoring slugfest ending with the biggest Super Bowl upset in 40 years.

Final score: Giants 34, Patriots 31

That being said, I will not bet a nickel on the Giants.  I do all of my gambling in the stock market, where the odds are much better.