The new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, wasted no time accusing the Chinese of manipulating their currency. To fully appreciate the irony, we must recall Mr. Geithner's background. Most recently he was the Regional Governor of the New York Federal Reserve Bank (and occasional taxpayer) and we all know the Fed would never intervene in the marketplace. Prior to that, he came from Goldman Sachs, the mastermind of the Gold Cartel. BTW, his replacement at the New York Fed is William Dudley, and can you guess where he came from...(drum roll, please) - Goldman Sachs! No points for that correct answer; the question was too easy. Oddly, Mr. Geithner was silent when asked if the United States manipulates its currency.
To their credit, the Chinese fired back at him, and rightfully so. Sooner or later, our elected (and appointed) officials are going to learn that you had better be nice to your bankers, and that's what the Chinese are. We owe them $2 trillion + and that number continues to grow. For now, China and the US are joined at the hip, because they need us as much as we need them. They save money, which we borrow and spend. Then they lend us more money. The reason they keep playing this sucker's game is that their domestic market cannot support their economy. The Chinese, Indians, and other developing countries can't afford to buy all the stuff they're producing. Actually, neither can we, but keep buying it anyway. So if the Chinese stop lending, not only does the dollar crash, sending their huge dollar holdings downward, but their entire economy goes with it.
It wasn't so long ago that the 2009 budget deficit was supposed to be $1.2 trillion. Now I have seen some conjecture that it could top $3 trillion. That's three (3) trillion dollars. US dollars, not Zimbabwe dollars. Although at this rate, there might not be too much difference before too long. That's more than all of last year's total budget. And to think there was a time when spending $100 million on a bridge-to-nowhere was considered a scandal. These days, that's not even a rounding error when the government is pledging $320 billion to rescue Citigroup.
On the whole, I think gold and silver are the place to be, followed by oil and gas. Gold recently blasted through $900, but that could not be allowed to hold with options expiration coming up, so the yellow metal had to be held below that level to make the $900 calls expire valueless. Otherwise someone besides JP Morgan and HSBC might have made some money in commodities this month.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Friday, January 23, 2009
So long, Flight Service
This is what happens when you farm out a vital service to a third-rate company. The vital service in question is Flight Service, and the third-rate company is the government contractor Lockheed Martin. Back in the 1970's when it was just Lockheed, the company nearly went bankrupt, and had to be bailed out by the government, in the days when bailouts were still unusual (unlike today.) Lockheed was a third-rate company even then. How did a third-rate company grow so large? By milking the federal govenment for lucrative contracts.
Flight Service had been around for decades, until Lockheed Martin got its grubby paws on the system. After bungling the transition from the government and providing terrible service to the pilots (when it provided any service at all) LM closed down two-thirds of the stations. Then it closed most of the remaining ones out here in the west. Oakland Flight Service survived World War II and the 1989 earthquake, but Lockheed Martin was too much for it.
Then, not content with closing stations, LM went on to lay off employees from the remanining stations. I guess they were providing such good service to the pilots that they thought they could safely reduce their staffing levels still further. Of course they laid off the older, ex-FAA people, because they cost more, as well as anyone with any union affiliation, the better to discourage anyone from being pro-union. So LM got rid of the most experienced specialists in order to keep those who work cheap, typical of any third-rate company. At least the kids had student loans to repay, so they kept wouldn't give the bosses any trouble. Ya wohl, mein kommandant!
That reminds me, I just bought the complete Hogan's Heroes on DVD, and that show had to be one of my all-time favorites. Sergeant Schultz, in particular, was my hero, and I emulated him throughout my FAA/LM career. Plane crash? I know NOTHING!!! Operational error? I see NOTHING!! Don't laugh, it got me through twenty years, during which I killed eight planes. Actually my developmental killed the last one while I was training him on Flight Watch, but I still got credit because I was responsible. I even have a Sergeant Schultz T-shirt, which I used to wear to work in the days you could still wear T-shirts to work, before the LM Nazis made up all kinds of crazy new work rules.
Come to think of it, in my final months at Oakland Flight Service, I kind of felt like I was at a prisoner of war camp, but that was mostly due to the manager. He went on a power trip, and started acting like Colonel Klink. Not that he was that stupid, just that he got seriously drunk with power, and thought he was a lot smarter than he really was. And they wonder why I retired.
C'est la vie. Soon Flight Service will only be a fond memory, at least the FAA years. The LM experience was completely forgettable. When I worked for the FAA the only problems we had were the pilots and (some of) the supervisors. At the end with LM, we had no problems with either the pilots or the supervisors, and it was still a miserable place to work. That took talent, LockMart.
Lockheed Martin: The 21st century corporation with 1930's management.
Flight Service had been around for decades, until Lockheed Martin got its grubby paws on the system. After bungling the transition from the government and providing terrible service to the pilots (when it provided any service at all) LM closed down two-thirds of the stations. Then it closed most of the remaining ones out here in the west. Oakland Flight Service survived World War II and the 1989 earthquake, but Lockheed Martin was too much for it.
Then, not content with closing stations, LM went on to lay off employees from the remanining stations. I guess they were providing such good service to the pilots that they thought they could safely reduce their staffing levels still further. Of course they laid off the older, ex-FAA people, because they cost more, as well as anyone with any union affiliation, the better to discourage anyone from being pro-union. So LM got rid of the most experienced specialists in order to keep those who work cheap, typical of any third-rate company. At least the kids had student loans to repay, so they kept wouldn't give the bosses any trouble. Ya wohl, mein kommandant!
That reminds me, I just bought the complete Hogan's Heroes on DVD, and that show had to be one of my all-time favorites. Sergeant Schultz, in particular, was my hero, and I emulated him throughout my FAA/LM career. Plane crash? I know NOTHING!!! Operational error? I see NOTHING!! Don't laugh, it got me through twenty years, during which I killed eight planes. Actually my developmental killed the last one while I was training him on Flight Watch, but I still got credit because I was responsible. I even have a Sergeant Schultz T-shirt, which I used to wear to work in the days you could still wear T-shirts to work, before the LM Nazis made up all kinds of crazy new work rules.
Come to think of it, in my final months at Oakland Flight Service, I kind of felt like I was at a prisoner of war camp, but that was mostly due to the manager. He went on a power trip, and started acting like Colonel Klink. Not that he was that stupid, just that he got seriously drunk with power, and thought he was a lot smarter than he really was. And they wonder why I retired.
C'est la vie. Soon Flight Service will only be a fond memory, at least the FAA years. The LM experience was completely forgettable. When I worked for the FAA the only problems we had were the pilots and (some of) the supervisors. At the end with LM, we had no problems with either the pilots or the supervisors, and it was still a miserable place to work. That took talent, LockMart.
Lockheed Martin: The 21st century corporation with 1930's management.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Guest editorial
This is from David Galland, managing director of Casey Research, which is anything but a liberal organization. Mr. Galland can be quite eloquent when he wants to:
Bye-Bye, Baby Bush
For what I am about to do, I need to apologize to you, if you fall into two categories of readers. The first group consists of those of you who still count themselves as supporters of President Bush, approximately 35% of the population if you believe the latest polls. The second group is those of you who are subscribers to The Casey Report, because you will recognize this as the “End Quote” from the current edition. Thus, in addition to the fact that you have already read it, I am sharing something from your paid subscription with others who do not subscribe. (If you fall into either of those groups, to save me the need to apologize, you can just skip over the essay by Doug Casey that follows.)
With those apologies out of the way, I felt compelled, given that President Bush will step down before the next edition of these musings is published, to comment on his presidency, but anything I might write would pale compared to Doug’s final – strong - thoughts on the Bush presidency. His remarks follow… This may be the last time I’ll talk about the Baby Bush in this letter. Starting the 21st of January, he’ll be flushed down the toilet of history, remembered only for his inanities, stupidities, criminality, arrogance, and malapropisms. I well remember getting numerous hate letters and requests for cancellation when, especially early in his first administration, I explained what a disaster he was going to be…
My assessment of George W. Bush? I think he's genuinely thoughtless, and actually a little stupid. What will happen is that Dick Cheney will be the President-in-Fact, and Dick is a very dangerous man, the archetypical National Security Fascist and Corporate Statist. Well, at least they'll probably repeal the death tax. The loss of many of your remaining freedoms is a small price to pay, I suppose. (December 2000)
***Absolutely anything the Baby Bush says or does is almost guaranteed to be an exquisite combination of funny, scary, and depressing. I said this before the election (along with a lot of other things), but I'm totally convinced he's dim, with an IQ probably between 95 and 100. His lack of raw computing power doesn't help him in making wise decisions. Like his designation of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea as the so-called Axis of Evil. My vote for that title "Axis of Evil" goes to Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Ashcroft. All these men impress me as being quite bright (and are excellent proof that intelligence is no more than a tool), but totally bent. And they must play the Baby Bush like a fiddle. (September 2002)
But just in December he outdid himself, when Bush said, on CNN television:"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system,” saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse… I feel a sense of obligation to my successor to make sure there is not a, you know, a huge economic crisis. Look, we're in a crisis now. I mean, this is -- we're in a huge recession, but I don't want to make it even worse."The simpleton has somehow been positioned as a staunch defender and advocate of laissez-faire, who is now belatedly recognizing the damage the free market has done and trying to mend its wicked ways. This is exactly what happened with Herbert Hoover, another unprincipled fascist, who was also painted as a capitalist, discrediting economic freedom for generations to come.
It’s truly sad -- and a sign of the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the U.S. -- that gigantic lies like these will be swallowed whole. Be careful with people who lie; they do it largely because they want to control others.But there is also some good news involving the despicable Baby Bush.Like hundreds of millions of others around the world, I was gratified, thrilled, and morally uplifted when Muntadhar al-Zeidi, a 29-year-old Iraqi journalist, stood during a press conference Bush gave in the Green Zone and threw both his shoes at him, while shouting in Arabic, "This is a farewell kiss, you dog. This is from the widows, the orphans, and those who were killed in Iraq."
I don’t know what al-Zeidi’s views on things other than Bush may be. But the man is a hero. And his actions are more appropriate than any form of violence, because they show contempt and disgust. These are emotions that can engender a mass movement, the type of thing the movie V for Vendetta portrayed. It was a fitting farewell kiss from Iraq. Too bad the running dogs that pass for journalists in the U.S. would be too afraid to even think about doing the same when Bush passes the crown of empire to Obama.
Bye-Bye, Baby Bush
For what I am about to do, I need to apologize to you, if you fall into two categories of readers. The first group consists of those of you who still count themselves as supporters of President Bush, approximately 35% of the population if you believe the latest polls. The second group is those of you who are subscribers to The Casey Report, because you will recognize this as the “End Quote” from the current edition. Thus, in addition to the fact that you have already read it, I am sharing something from your paid subscription with others who do not subscribe. (If you fall into either of those groups, to save me the need to apologize, you can just skip over the essay by Doug Casey that follows.)
With those apologies out of the way, I felt compelled, given that President Bush will step down before the next edition of these musings is published, to comment on his presidency, but anything I might write would pale compared to Doug’s final – strong - thoughts on the Bush presidency. His remarks follow… This may be the last time I’ll talk about the Baby Bush in this letter. Starting the 21st of January, he’ll be flushed down the toilet of history, remembered only for his inanities, stupidities, criminality, arrogance, and malapropisms. I well remember getting numerous hate letters and requests for cancellation when, especially early in his first administration, I explained what a disaster he was going to be…
My assessment of George W. Bush? I think he's genuinely thoughtless, and actually a little stupid. What will happen is that Dick Cheney will be the President-in-Fact, and Dick is a very dangerous man, the archetypical National Security Fascist and Corporate Statist. Well, at least they'll probably repeal the death tax. The loss of many of your remaining freedoms is a small price to pay, I suppose. (December 2000)
***Absolutely anything the Baby Bush says or does is almost guaranteed to be an exquisite combination of funny, scary, and depressing. I said this before the election (along with a lot of other things), but I'm totally convinced he's dim, with an IQ probably between 95 and 100. His lack of raw computing power doesn't help him in making wise decisions. Like his designation of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea as the so-called Axis of Evil. My vote for that title "Axis of Evil" goes to Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Ashcroft. All these men impress me as being quite bright (and are excellent proof that intelligence is no more than a tool), but totally bent. And they must play the Baby Bush like a fiddle. (September 2002)
But just in December he outdid himself, when Bush said, on CNN television:"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system,” saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse… I feel a sense of obligation to my successor to make sure there is not a, you know, a huge economic crisis. Look, we're in a crisis now. I mean, this is -- we're in a huge recession, but I don't want to make it even worse."The simpleton has somehow been positioned as a staunch defender and advocate of laissez-faire, who is now belatedly recognizing the damage the free market has done and trying to mend its wicked ways. This is exactly what happened with Herbert Hoover, another unprincipled fascist, who was also painted as a capitalist, discrediting economic freedom for generations to come.
It’s truly sad -- and a sign of the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the U.S. -- that gigantic lies like these will be swallowed whole. Be careful with people who lie; they do it largely because they want to control others.But there is also some good news involving the despicable Baby Bush.Like hundreds of millions of others around the world, I was gratified, thrilled, and morally uplifted when Muntadhar al-Zeidi, a 29-year-old Iraqi journalist, stood during a press conference Bush gave in the Green Zone and threw both his shoes at him, while shouting in Arabic, "This is a farewell kiss, you dog. This is from the widows, the orphans, and those who were killed in Iraq."
I don’t know what al-Zeidi’s views on things other than Bush may be. But the man is a hero. And his actions are more appropriate than any form of violence, because they show contempt and disgust. These are emotions that can engender a mass movement, the type of thing the movie V for Vendetta portrayed. It was a fitting farewell kiss from Iraq. Too bad the running dogs that pass for journalists in the U.S. would be too afraid to even think about doing the same when Bush passes the crown of empire to Obama.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Worst president ever
Just go, W. Before you do any more damage to our country. Someday (if you aren't already) you will be mentioned in the same breath as Hoover. The damage this man has done, both to our economy and our standing abroad, are incalculable. More and more, I wish I could have traded places with the Iraqi journalist who launched his size-10's at Bush.
The economists finally figured out that our economy is in recession, and has been since the last quarter. Boy, you can't put anything past those guys. Even with all of the doctored economic data, they figured it out. I'm not sure how long this will last, but I do know it will get worse before it gets better. Today's fun topic is...guess the size of this year's budget deficit. We were originally told $1 trillion, but that's just a round number with plenty of room for interpretation. Now they are saying $1.2 trillion this year, and $1.8 trillion next year.
Believe it or not, I would take that. I would be (relatively) happy if that's all it is. I think it will be more, and that's not counting Iraq, Afghanistan, borrowing from Social Security and all the other off-budget stuff. The budget deficit could top $2 trillion this year if/when the recession deepens. President Obama's response is to spend money that we don't have, and probably won't be able to borrow. The only thing holding this house of cards together is that the Chinese need our export markets. They have to keep selling stuff to us, even though we can't afford to pay for it, because their domestic market is still inadequate. So we may be able to muddle through a while longer. But this won't last forever.
I keep hearing the old Will Rogers quote that people are more concerned with return OF captial than return ON capital. For that reason they buy treasury bonds that pay 2% interest. Imagine locking up your money for ten years at 2% interest. This is what is known as return-free risk. Treasury bonds can't appreciate any further because interest rates can't go any lower. T-Bonds are a bubble, just like houses and the Nasdaq. The best investments for the year ahead will be gold, silver, and especially the mining shares because they are trading at such depressed levels, notwithstanding the rally of the past two months. The people who do best in the stock market tend to be people who buy at times like these. Well, actually it's people who did their buying back in October and November, when things really looked bleak. But now is still a good time to buy. Oil and natural gas will also do extremely well, as they have not yet rallied. But that is the nature of markets; everyone wanted oil at $140/bbl and no one wants it at $40/bbl. Except me.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Bye week, then Bye-Bye
This past weekend, four well rested NFL teams took the field, the #1 and #2 seeds in both the NFC and AFC. Three of them lost. First the Tennessee Titans turned the ball over once too often, and lost to the Ravens. Then the Carolina Panthers turned the ball over six times and were slaughtered by, of all people, the Arizona Cardinals. Then the New York Giants blew a bunch of scoring opportunities to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, which sets up a rematch of the 1948 NFL Championship Game. Better late than never. It does say something about the Cardinals that it's taken them 60 years to make it back to the big game. But the Pittsburgh Steelers took care of business, eliminating the other half of my Super Bowl pick, the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers were lucky just to make it this far. After 12 games, they were 4-8, and in a locker room meeting, LaDainian Tomilinson told his teammates, "We aren't giving up. We aren't the Raiders." No, they aren't, but it took an epic collapse by the Denver Broncos to let the Chargers make the playoffs at 8-8. I'm really not looking forward to Steelers-Ravens; that game should be called the Ugly Bowl. And one last note: the Atlanta Falcons were 11-5, but they had to go on the road to Arizona to play the 9-7 Cardinals, and lost. The Indianapolis Colts were 11-5, and had beaten the Chargers, but still had to go to San Diego to play the 8-8 Chargers, and lost. Once again, it is time to revamp the playoff system.
Strange but true: the New York Giants general manager Jerry Reese now says they are open to taking Plaxico Burress back if everything works out for him. Let me just say:
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Do they really need his infantile behavior ruining team chemistry? No, but as Sunday's loss to the Eagles shows, they need a deep threat to stretch the field. Note to Jerry Reese: that's what the draft is for. The Giants have everything else, so use your number one pick on the best wideout you can find. If you really want an idiot for a #1 receiver, there's that Chad Ocho Whatever guy in Cincinnati. At least he hasn't shot himself lately.
But he'll be back. Why do I think Plax will be back? Some way, somehow, he will beat the rap. He will be appropriately repentant, and after doing the requisite bowing and scraping, he will back in the NFL. But I always thought it would be for another team. One of the things I always liked about the Giants is that they were the opposite of the Cowboys; they never led the league in felonies. As Inspector Clouseau would say, "Not any more!"
Strange but true: the New York Giants general manager Jerry Reese now says they are open to taking Plaxico Burress back if everything works out for him. Let me just say:
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Do they really need his infantile behavior ruining team chemistry? No, but as Sunday's loss to the Eagles shows, they need a deep threat to stretch the field. Note to Jerry Reese: that's what the draft is for. The Giants have everything else, so use your number one pick on the best wideout you can find. If you really want an idiot for a #1 receiver, there's that Chad Ocho Whatever guy in Cincinnati. At least he hasn't shot himself lately.
But he'll be back. Why do I think Plax will be back? Some way, somehow, he will beat the rap. He will be appropriately repentant, and after doing the requisite bowing and scraping, he will back in the NFL. But I always thought it would be for another team. One of the things I always liked about the Giants is that they were the opposite of the Cowboys; they never led the league in felonies. As Inspector Clouseau would say, "Not any more!"
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