RIP U.S. Dollar

Anyone remember Jim Bunning?  If you're as old as me, you may remember he pitched for the Phillies, among others.  After a long, distinguished career as a pitcher, he embarked on a long, UNdistinguished career as a Congressman.  In fact, in 2006, Time called him one of the country's 5 worst senators.  But I digress.

Today, Congress voted to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  This was not surprising, as the Chinese and others hold hundreds of billions of their bonds, so the two GSE's could not be allowed to fail.  But the government also decided to enable them to guarantee virtually all of the mortgages written from here on out.

Isn't that what got us into this housing mess in the first place?  Lending lots of money to people who had no intention or capacity for paying it back.  And now the government will guarantee all of the loans.  Risk-free lending, because if (when) anything goes wrong, the government (taxpayers) will pay for it.  FRE and FNM already guarantee more than $5 trillion of mortgages, and you can expect that number to grow substantially.

To put it bluntly, the dollar is toast.  The government is desperately trying to re-flate the housing bubble.  Ever try to blow up a balloon that's already popped?  Think the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and others will be lining up to buy more mortgage-backed securities?  NO ONE is that stupid!

Which brings us to Jim Bunning.  Senator Bunning went and chewed out Fed Chairman Bernanke last week for his role in the mortgage mess:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFDlOzJGriI&feature=related

Treasury Secretary Paulson didn't come off too well, either, did he?  He kind of sounded like Ralph Kramden would have, if he had an MBA...homina homina homina...

The government says this new bill will cost $25 billion to guarantee those mortgages.  Right.  $25 billion to guarantee trillions of dollars of new mortgages to people who can barely fog up a mirror, much less earn a living, or make mortgage payments.

The most telling point in this entire debacle is that even Jim Bunning, one of the dimmest bulbs in the U.S. Senate, can see that this is bullshit.  The money will be created out of thin air...excuse me, by monetization of debt.  It sounds real nice when you use big, fancy words, and now my advanced degree in finance has been put to good use.

In other words, the dollar is toast.  Sometimes small and simple words work best.

Shark sighting

After 54 holes of play, Greg Norman has a two-stroke lead at the British Open.  No, it is not 1988.  Yes, THAT Greg Norman, the one who used to be the best player in the world about a million years ago.

He used to be #1, but now he's 53 years old, and he isn't even ranked in the top 600.  He's won the British Open before (twice) so he is invited to play every year through age 65.  But his appearances have been largely ceremonial.  He hasn't won a tournament in ten years, and hasn't even played in a major championship in three years.

He recently married Chris Evert, and their Open Championship (that's what the British call it, as though there were no others by that name) was just a stop on his honeymoon.  The British Open is always played in July in the hope that there might be at least a couple of days of good weather.  But even in the middle of summer, that's not a good bet in England or Scotland.

This year they started playing in the rain, and today they had almost gale force winds.  Afterwards, Norman said the conditions were such that he would have to hit a 5-iron from 120 yards, or aim his shot 60-80 yards left or right of target, depending on the wind.

The nice thing (or awful thing if you like to sleep in) about the British Open is that it's over by noon.  Thanks to the eight-hour time difference they start coverage at 5 or 6 AM Pacific time.

The reason I am writing this blog entry today instead of waiting until the tournament is over is my lack of confidence.  As much as I want to see Norman win the Open, his history is what it is.  No one can blow a major championship like Greg Norman.  His ability to collapse on Sunday in legendary.

Good luck, Shark, because I think that two-shot lead could be gone halfway through the front nine.

 

Cowboys 27, Chargers 13

I know it's a little early to be predicting the result of Super Bowl 43, but why wait until the last minute?  Football season starts next month, and I didn't want any meaningless pre-season games coloring my judgment.  Dallas wins because they have so much talent that not even Wade Philips will be able to mess this up.  In short, Tony Romo shows he's ready for prime time, and Philip Rivers shows he isn't.  That's not to say Rivers won't win a Super Bowl some day; he just has to do some growing up before he becomes a good quarterback.

What about last year's combatants?  This is what New England considers a transitional year.  For anyone else it would be a rebuilding year, but the Pats never rebuild.  They keep playing at a high level as they bring in younger players.  They're still a good team, but they have some age, and they won't make it past San Diego this time, as the Chargers finally exorcise some demons.

And the defending champions themselves?  I expect the New York Giants will stagger through a 9-7 season, which in this Age of Parity may get them into the playoffs, but not for long.  Why such a decline in their fortunes?  First of all, the Giants were not the most talented team in the NFL last year.  Far from it.  The Pats were better, and the Cowboys, and the Colts, and the Chargers, and at least a few more teams besides.

Having said that, I think the 2008 Giants will actually be more talented than the 2007 version.  But as the Giants elder statement Amani Toomer said, some of the most talented Giant teams he played on were the worst Giant teams.  They underacheived throughout the early 2000's and it wasn't just the matter of growing pains as they developed a new quarterback.

This was a team whose stars thought they were more important than the team.  Shockey works out by himself, Strahan showed up for camp if and when he felt like it, Burress showed up the quarterback, and so on.  Now in the off season, a bunch of Giants went out and wrote books and ate more than they should have on the banquet circuit.  The hungry team that out-played everyone in the playoffs last year has become fat, dumb, and UNhappy.

Justin Tuck was given the huge contract he deserves, so now Osi (the only Pro Bowler) wants more money.  Shockey is angry because people are saying the team won the Super Bowl without him,and he got in a shouting match with the GM, Burress is unhappy with his contract (that still runs through 2010) and Ahmad Bradshaw is serving 30 days in jail.  At least it was only a parole violation, not a new offense.  This does not inspire confidence in the Giants ability to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

So it will be the Cowboys, the team that least deserves another championship, with the worst owner this side of George Steinbrenner, that wins the Super Bowl.

Missed it by that much

I don't normally do movie reviews, but there is a first time for everything.  I recently saw Get Smart, the latest incarnation of a TV show that first aired about forty years ago.  It was a good movie, but not a great one. 

The actors used had the same names as the old TV show, but not all of them were the same characters.  Of course the actors are allowed their own interpretations, but this Siegfried was a real bastard, and the original was good for some comic relief.

Steve Carell was good as Maxwell Smart but no one, and I mean no one could ever replace Barbara Feldon as Agent 99.  Anne Hathaway is a different kind of 99; I don't remember  Barbara Feldon ever doing a tae kwon do tornado kick.

Most of all, this movie was more a tribute to the original show than a stand-alone movie.  There were so many references to the original that must have meant absolutely nothing to kids who never saw the TV show.  There was some semblence of a plot and some action sequences, but most of all it is a chance to see Control battle KAOS again, even if times have changed.

Again, it's a good movie for those who like the show, but it really makes you appreciate how good the TV show was.  The original was much funnier, back in a day when they could tell stories without using sex and graphic violence.  A few years ago Time-Life issued the collection of all five seasons on DVD for $200.  Much as I love the old show, I don't love it that much.  So I kept looking for it on eBay, and waited and hoped something might happen after the new movie was released.

Sure enough, the first season is now available from Amazon (and everywhere else) for...would you believe...$20!  It's available August 5 and I have already pre-ordered my copy.  If you want to experience the genius of Mel Brooks and Buck Henry, by all means try the original show.